现金股利承诺制度与资源配置

Cash Dividend Commitment and Resource Allocation

现金分红是投资者获得回报的重要方式,长期稳定的分红政策是成熟资本市场的标志。由于具备良好的法律环境和投资者保护制度,发达国家政府不对企业的分配行为进行干预。相比之下,新兴市场国家由于缺乏制度供给,需要政府对企业的分配行为进行引导。为了促进资本市场的成熟和发展,我国证监会要求申请上市的公司在公司章程中对未来的分配政策做出承诺,这一制度创新体现了企业决策和政府监管的结合,这一新政能否达到目的?本文以申请在中小板和创业板上市的公司为研究样本,对上述问题进行了检验。研究结果发现,证监会和市场都青睐承诺分红比例高的公司,这些公司上市后的业绩优于承诺分红比例低的企业,说明分红承诺比例传递了公司价值的信号,证监会的新政提高了资本市场配置资源的效率。进一步比较后发现,在承诺分红比例高的公司中,市场更加欢迎分红承诺不附加条件的公司,这类公司上市后的业绩更好,这说明分红承诺是否附加条件也传递了公司价值的信号,市场对这一信号做出了准确的判断,而证监会对之却没有加以区别。本文的研究结果表明十八届三中全会提出的使市场在资源配置中发挥决定性作用具有重大的实践意义。

Cash dividend is one major way that firms reward their investors. A long-term and stable dividend policy is one sign of a mature capital market. There are established legal environments and investor protection institutions in developed countries, so government do not intervene in corporate dividend policy. In contrast, there are insufficient institutional supports in emerging markets, so regulations are needed to discipline firms＇ distribution behavior. In order to protect the interests of investors and to develop sound capital market, China＇s Securities Regulatory Commission （CSRC） requires the ＂Initial Public Offerings＂ （IPO） companies to make commitment on future dividend policy in firm articles. This new policy allows both government regulation and firms＇ discretions. Does this policy work？ We use IPO firms （small and medium size board and GEM） to answer this question. We find that both CSRC and investors favor IPO firms that commit high dividend payout which have better post-IPO performance. The result indicates that dividend payout commitment ratio signals firm value, and the new policy increases resource allocation efficiency. We also find that in the group of IPO firms that commit high dividend payout, firms that make unconditional commitment to pay cash dividends have better post-IPO performance and are less underpriced. But these firms are not more likely to be approved by CSRC. This indicates that dividend commitments conditions also signal firm value. The results show that investors are more efficient in estimating firm value than CSRC. This study not only provides empirical evidence for future IPO registration-based system reform, also shows the practical value to let the market decide the allocation of resources addressed by the Third Plenary Session of 18th CPC Central Committee.