区域水安全评价研究——以中部四省为例

Regional Water Security Evaluation Studies:Taking Four Provinces in Central China for Example

水资源是重要的战略资源.在考虑水资源特性并结合中四角四省具体情况的基础上,从人口、经济社会、资源、环境四个方面,构建了水安全评价指标体系,采用层次分析法确定了各指标的权重并对四省的水安全状况进行了评价,同时设置了各个指标的4个临界值,根据4个临界值组成的样本模型的计算结果,划分了江西、湖北、湖南和安徽的水安全状况级别.综合2005～2011年的评价结果看,水安全状况较好的是江西省,其次是湖南、湖北和安徽.最后从人口、经济社会、资源、环境四个不同方面对四省进行了对比分析.评价结果证明了该方法的可行性与有效性,在区域水安全评价中有一定应用价值.

Water resources are important strategic resources. In this paper, on the basis of considering the characteristics of water re- sources and combining the specific circumstances of the four provinces, water security evaluation index system of the four provinces is established. Index system involved in population, economy and society, resources environment and the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） are used to determine the weight of each index and made an evaluation of the four provinces of water security situation, four critical values of the index at the same time are set up, the Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan and Anhui＇s level of the water security situation is divided according to calculation results of sample model of the four critical value. The comprehensive evaluation results of 2005-- 2011, Jiangxi Province＇s water security situation is better, the second is Hunan, Anhui is the worst. Finally, four provinces were compared and analyzed from population, economy and society, resources, environment. The evaluation results prove the feasibility and effectiveness of the method, it has certain application value in regional water security evaluatiorL