山西省碳足迹动态分析及碳排放等级评估

Dynamic analysis of carbon footprint and evaluation of carbon emission degree in Shanxi province

为了研究山西省的碳足迹及碳排放水平,采用IPCC和中国《省级温室气体编制指南》推荐的方法对山西省1999-2010年的碳足迹进行了动态分析和碳排放等级评估。结论如下:碳足迹逐年增加,从38884.72×104t增加到88937.40×104t,年均增加7.81%;其中,能源碳足迹总量从38829.36×104t上升到88186.20×104t;水泥生产过程的碳足迹由470.21×104t增加到1209.45×104t;植被固碳由414.85×104t波动增长到458.25×104t。人均碳足迹由12.14 t增加到24.91t,年均提高6.76%;单位面积的碳足迹从0.25t/hm2增高到0.57t/hm2,年均提高7.81%;万元GDP的碳足迹从37.71t/万元降低到24.80t/万元,年均降低3.74%;能源强度从6.30t标准煤/万元降低到4.69t标准煤/万元,年均降低2.66%。碳排放指数从0.28(中下)逐年增加到0.58(较高),跨越了3个亚级。可见,自1999年以来,山西省能源活动对碳足迹的贡献在99%以上,而植被的固碳减排作用仅占1%左右;人均、地均碳足迹以年均7%左右的速度不断增高,但万元GDP碳足迹和能源强度以年均3%左右的速度降低,说明该省的碳减排水平和能源利用率逐年提高;碳排放等级增幅很大,碳减排的任务紧迫而艰巨。

Based on IPCC and ＂The Provincial Greenhouse Gas Preparation Guide＂, we calculated the carbon footprint of Shanxi province during 1999 - 2010, and evaluated the carbon emission degree of the province in addition. The results were as follows ： The carbon footprint increased yearly from 38884.72 × 10^4t to 88937.40 × 10^4t with annually increase rate of 7, 81%. In which, the energy carbon footprint increased from 38829.36 × 10^4t to 88186.20 × 10^4t, carbon footprint generated at cement production process increased from 470.21 × 10^4t to 1209.45 × 10^4t, vegetation carbon sequestration increased from 414.85 × 10^4t to 458.25 × 10^4t. Carbon footprint per capita increased from 12.14 t to 24.91 t, increased by 6.76% per year, carbon footprint per unit area increased from 0.25 t per hm2 to 0.57 t per hm2, increased by 7o 81% per year, carbon footprint per ten thou- sand Yuan GDP was decreased to 24.80 t per ten thousand Yuan from 37.71 t per ten thousand Yuan, with annual average decreased rate of 3.74%, energy intensity decreased from 6.30 tons of standard coal per ten thousand Yuan to 4.69 tons of standard coal per ten thousand Yuan, with annual average rate of 2.66%. Carbon emission index （ Lower - middle） increased from 0.28 to 0.58 （ High）, across the three levels. The conclusion from above was that the contribution of energy activity to the carbon footprint was more than 99%, whereas, vegetation carbon sequestration effect accounted for only about 1%. Carbon footprint per capita and carbon footprint per unit area increased at the rate of about 7% per year, and the carbon footprint per ten thousand Yuan GDP and energy intensity decreased at an average annual rate of about 3 %, that is to say that the technology level of carbon emissions and energy efficiency increased year by year. However, carbon emission degree rose very much, and the carbon emission reduction is urgent and an arduous task in Shanxi province for the sustainable development.