APEX模型在黄旗海流域的适用性研究

Applicability of APEX model to Huangqihai River Basin

以内蒙古自治区黄旗海流域霸王河上游地区为研究区,运用农业政策与环境拓展模型APEX（Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender）对流域径流和产沙量进行模拟。采用集宁水文站1983-1996年径流和产沙量的实测值对模型进行校准,并用1997-2011年径流和产沙量的实测值验证模型。运用Nash-Suttcliffe系数（Ens）、决定系数（R2）、平均百分误差的绝对值（APE）评价模型在黄旗海流域的适用性。采用Ens〉0.3,R2〉0.5,APE≤25%作为模型适用性评价标准。结果显示校准期Ens在0.43-0.75之间,R2在0.52-0.81之间,APE〈20%,验证期除年产沙量的R2〈0.5,其他评价指标数值都在评价标准内。说明APEX可用于模拟不同气候和土地管理条件下黄旗海流域的水文和水土流失过程,并对研究我国北方农牧交错带水文和生态过程具有潜在的应用价值。

Simulation models are widely used to assess watershed hydrology and erosion/sedimentation process. In this study, the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender （APEX） model was evaluated by using a 29 - year record （ 1983 -2011 ） of stream flow and sediment yield from the upper Bawanghe River watershed （768km2 ） in Huangqihai River Basin in Inner Mongolia. The APEX model was calibrated by using observed annual and monthly stream flow and sediment data （1983 -1996） from the Jining hydrological station, and validated by using the data from 1997 to 2011. The following criteria were used to evaluate the good performance of a model： the Nash -Suttcliffe efficiency （Ens） 〉 0.3, the Determination Coefficient （RE） value 〉 0.5, and absolute val- ue of the percent errors of mean （APE） ≤25%. Results indicate that the Ens values ranged from 0. 43 to 0.75, R2 values ranged from 0. 52 to 0.81, and the APE values were within 20% , for annual and monthly stream flows and monthly sediment yields during both calibration and validation periods. Only the annual sediment yields during the validation period had performance statistics not meeting the criteria of R2. The result shows that APEX model is performs well to simulate the hydrological and sediment processes in the Huangqihai the model is potentially applicable for the agriculture and pasture interlaced zone in northern River Basin, and China.