基于IOWHA算子的人口组合预测与分析

The Combinational Forecast of Population and Analysis Based on IOWHA Operator

以1979-2012年河南省人口总量为样本区间,在ARIMA、非线性回归和Gompertz曲线3种单项预测模型的基础上,根据预测值倒数的误差平方和最小准则构建基于IOWHA算子的组合预测模型.该人口组合预测模型能够综合利用各单一预测模型的预测信息,有效的减少预测误差,提高预测精度.预测结果显示:河南省人口总量2015年将达到10 807.08万人,2020年将达到11 555.64万人.

The paper regards the total population of Henan province in 1979--2012 as the sample period, on the basis of ARIMA, nonlinear regression and Geompertz curve three kinds of single forecasting model, according to the minimum error sum of squares criterion to the reciprocal of prediction value, and constructs the combinational forecast model based on IOWHA operator. The population combinational forecast model can integrate utilization the predictive information of each single forecas- ting model, reduce forecast error effectively, and improve the predicting accuracy. The forecasting result shows that the total population of Henan province will reach 108. 070 8 million in 2015, and 115. 556 4 million in 2020.