中国饲料市场形势分析与未来10年展望

China's Feed Market and Its Outlook for the Next Decade

2013年中国饲料市场总体相对平稳,呈现饲料工业总产量首次下滑、消费量略有下降、重要原料价格波动明显、主要产品价格上涨放缓的基本特点;展望未来10年,中国饲料工业生产量和消费量将缓慢增长,预计到2023年将分别达到22 989万t和23 422万t,年均增长率均为2.3%,显著低于过去10年7.6%和6.8%的发展速度;受成本上升的支撑作用,中国饲料产品市场价格预计将温和上涨,平均每年上涨幅度将达到1.1%。为适应中国饲料工业发展进入调整期的客观要求,建议政策面进一步加大产业政策扶持力度、强化信息监测预警能力和创新市场风险管理工具。

China＇s feed market experienced relatively stable situation in 2013 generally, which showed that the total output fell for the first time, the consumption declined slightly, the price of important feedstuff fluctuated obviously, and the rises of main products price have eased. For the next decade, China＇s feed production and consumption will continue to increase, but at a much reduced rate. China＇s feed production and utilization is projected to reach 229.89 million tons and 234.22 million tons by 2023 respectively, however the same growth rate （2.3% p.a.） will obviously below the level of previous decade （7.6% p.a. and 6.8% p.a. respectively）. As a result of costs increase, China＇s feed price is forecasted to rise at a modest pace, growing at the rate of 1.1% p.a.. In response to adaptation to the objective requirements of adjustment period of China＇s feed industry, feed industry supports, information monitoring and early-warning, and risk management instruments need to be intensified, strengthened, and innovated from the perspective of government.