2014年上半年中国生猪市场分析及后期走势判断

Pig market in China in the First Half of 2014 and Its Future Trend

分析了2014年上半年中国生猪市场特点,指出稳定生猪生产、维护养猪户利益并且平衡消费者与养殖户的利益是当前生猪产业急需解决的问题,但是现实情况是养猪亏损、消费者亦未感觉到猪肉价格的便宜,而市场并不具备支持猪价持续上涨的条件,因为生猪市场供大于求的状况并未发生根本改观;猪价震荡下滑,养殖户在心理上需要理性谨慎;目前猪肉消费量已经落入年后的第2个低谷。预计下半年猪价将步入恢复性上涨通道。

This paper analyzed the characteristics of pig market in China in the first half of 2014, then pointed out that the urgent problems needed to be solved in pig industry currently were stabilizing pig production, safeguarding farmers＇ interests and balancing the interests between consumers and farmers, but the reality was that consumer didn＇t think pork prices were inexpensive while farmers suffered losses. At the same time, conditions supporting market prices rise were lack, because the oversupply situation of pig market hasn＇t been improved fundamentally. Farmers have to be rational and careful psychologically due to the decline of pork prices with concussion. The pork consumption has been falling into the second slump in 2014. It is expected that the pig prices will go up into increase of restorative channel in the second half of 2014.