农业生产资料价格波动对农产品价格上涨的影响与预测

Impact of the Fluctuation of Agricultural Production Materials Prices on the Rise of Agricultural Products Prices and Their Predictions

在剖析农产品价格与农业生产资料价格的关联性基础上,基于2006—2012年的月度数据,利用VAR模型分析了两者之间的数量关系,并在模型中加入了货币供给量以及原油价格变量。研究表明,农产品价格具有较强的时间惯性,扣除其自身因素,农业生产资料价格对农产品价格影响较大,且比较稳定,货币供给量和原油价格的影响较小。最后对农产品价格变动进行了预测:随着农村劳动力转移规模的扩大,农业生产资料价格影响农产品价格的权重将会增加,农业生产资料价格的上涨也会在更大程度上带来农产品价格的上涨。

This paper analyzed the relationship between agricultural products prices and agricultural production materials prices, then discussed the quantitative relationship between them using VAR model based on 2006-2012 monthly data, which concluded the other two variables of money supply and crude oil price. The results showed that prices of agricultural products had strong time of inertia, net of its own factors, agricultural production materials prices had greater and stable impact on agricultural products prices, and relatively impaction of money supply and crude oil price was less. Finally, the paper gave a forecast of changes in agricultural product prices. With the expansion of the scale of rural labor migration, agricultural production materials prices will further influence the prices of agricultural products, and the increase of agricultural production materials prices will bring the rise of agricultural products prices more deeply.