动态随机一般均衡理论的新进展

New Progress of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Theory

动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)能够为宏观经济分析提供微观基础条件,采用一般均衡方法将理性预期纳入基础方程之中,并以不完全竞争市场价格和工资粘性为假设前提。2008年全球金融危机后,DSGE模型暴露出一些问题:对微观主体人纯理性预期假设与实际情况不符;标准模型没有考虑金融因素;在处理外部冲击因素时存在不合理性。因此,DSGE模型应做以下几方面的改进:在模型假设前提方面将异质性假设纳入DSGE模型;纳入内生性金融因素;在方法上通过构建复合型模型来提高其预测能力。

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory(DSGE) can provide micro fundamental conditions for macroeconomic analysis. It adopts general equilibrium method to include rational expectations into the fundamental formula and assumes preconditions of market prices and wage stickiness under imperfect competition. After the financial crisis in 2008, some problems have been exposed with regards to DSGE model: pure rational expectation hypothesis on micro subject person is not consistent with actual situations; financial factors are not taken into consideration in the standard model; there are irrationalities in handling external impacting factors. Therefore, DSGE model should be improved in the following several aspects: to include heterogeneity assumption into DSGE model with regards to assumption preconditions of the model; include endogenous financial factors; improve its forecasting capability via building compound model in the above method.