基于马克思必要劳动和剩余劳动观的农业部门剩余劳动力估算研究

Surplus Labor Estimation of Agricultural Sector Based on View of Marx's Necessary Labor and Surplus Labor

针对用工荒和就业难并存的现实悖论,基于马克思的必要劳动和剩余劳动的观点,使用我国1978 ～ 2010年时间序列数据对我国农业部门潜在剩余劳动力进行点估计和区间估计.结果表明,我国目前农业部门的潜在剩余劳动力数量大约在2亿左右,并且我国的劳动力供给潜在优势持续时间最短为20年左右,最长为30年左右.要充分利用劳动力供给的潜在机遇,必须尽快调整和优化产业结构,加强农业生产技术研发和农业劳动力培训力度,并加速城乡发展的一体化进程.

In view of the realistic paradox of labor shortages coexists with employment,based on a conceptual model of Marx＇s necessary labor and surplus labor,this paper estimates the latent surplus labor of China＇ s agricultural sector by using 1978-2010 time series data.Result shows that China＇ s current number of potential surplus labor of agricultural sector is about 200 million,and the labor supply will keep potential advantage for 20 years at least and for 30 years at most.In order to make full use of the potential opportunities of labor supply,we must adjust and optimize the industrial structure as soon as possible,strengthen agricultural R＆D and labor force training,and accelerate the integration process of urban and rural development.