长沙市城投债发行规模及信用风险评价研究

The Scale and Risk Research of the Municipal Bonds in Changsha

长沙市城投债发行规模较大,隐藏着较大的信用风险。论文首先分析了长沙市城投债发行规模的现状;构建了引入Knight不确定性因素的KMV修正模型,对长沙市城投债信用风险进行了实证分析;从严控长沙市政府财政风险、合理控制城投债发行规模、建立风险预警机制和合理安排城投债的发行期限三个方面提出了规范长沙市城投债发展的对策建议。

The scale of the municipal bonds in Changsha is large, and there is much credit risk hidden in it. Firstly the paper analyzes the current situation of the issuing scale of the municipal bonds in Changsha. Then, KMV correction model which introduces Knight uncertainty factor is constructed, and it makes the empirical analysis of the credit risk of the municipal bonds in Changsha. Finally the suggestions are proposed to regulate the development of the municipal bonds in Changsha from the aspects of controlling the financial risks of Changsha municipal guvernment strictly, controlling the issuing scale of the municipal bonds legitimately, establishing a risk warning mechanism and arranging the issuing period of the municipal bonds with reason.