麻栎在中国的地理分布及潜在分布区预测

Geographical Distribution and Prediction of Potential Ranges of Quercus acutissimain China

基于19个生物气候因子和473个地理分布记录,利用DIVA-GIS软件,分析了麻栎在中国的地理分布与气候的关系及其潜在分布区。结果表明：中国麻栎分布在18°-41°N、91°-123°E之间,其地理分布可划分为6个区,其中横断山脉区、云贵高原区、秦岭巴山区比较集中;分布区跨越7个温度带、3个干湿区、18个气候区,包括9种气候类型;适宜麻栎生长的年均温度为5.1℃-20.7℃,年降雨量为471-1 712.6mm;影响麻栎地理分布的主导因子依次为湿度因子、耐旱能力和温度因子。BIOCLIM模型预测显示,麻栎潜在分布区与实际分布区具有很好的一致性,其最适分布区位于云贵高原中部和秦岭巴山区;在CO2浓度倍增的未来气候情景下,麻栎潜在分布区面积将缩小,且有向北方和高海拔地区扩散的趋势。ROC曲线分析表明,BIOCLIM模型的模拟精度较高（AUC=0.826）。研究结果对于合理经营利用麻栎林具有重要的理论和现实意义。

Based on data of 19 bioclimatic variables and 473 geographic distribution records from specimens and published literatures,we analyzed the relationship between geographical distribution and climatic factors,and predicted the potential ranges of Quercus acutissimain China using DIVA-GIS software.The results were as follows：（1）The distribution of Q.acutissimain China ranged from 18°-41°N to 91°-123°E,which could be divided into six regions.In these regions,the abundance of Q.acutissima was relatively high in Hengduan Mountains,Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and Qin-Ba Mountains;（2）The six distribution regions of Q.acutissimaextends 7temperature zones,3moisture regions and 18 climatic sub-regions,including 9kinds of climate types;（3）The suitable mean annual temperature and annual precipitation for the growth of Q.acutissima were 5.1℃-20.7℃and 471-1 712.6mm,respectively;（4）The order of dominant factors affect geographical distribution of Q.acutissima was：humidity〉drought tolerance〉temperature;（5）The prediction with BIOCLIM model indicated that the potential and actual distribution of Q.acutissima had good consistency,and the optimal distribution regions for Q.acutissima were the central part of YunnanGuizhou Plateau and Qin-Ba mountains.In addition,distribution areas of Q.acutissima would be reducedand have a tendency of extending to northern China and high-altitude regions under future climate scenario of doubled atmospheric CO2concentration;（6）Evaluation by ROC curve showed that BIOCLIM could accurately predict the species distribution（AUC=0.826）.These results may provide a theoretical basis and practical significance for reasonable management of Q.acutissimaforest.