基于技术预见的科技规划模式与指标评价研究

Model of science and technology and evaluation indexes based on technology foresight

技术预见是一种对科学技术与经济社会协同发展进行战略前瞻性研究的系统方法。以技术预见为基础构建科技规划模型;建立科技规划"FRROC指标体系",包括5大类20个指标;并运用模糊综合评价法对各指标进行评估优选,将该指标体系分为5个I级指标、8个II级指标、5个III级指标和2个IV级指标。研究成果可规范科技规划的编制,提高重大科技专项技术选择的准确性和有效性;研究表明,充分考虑I级关键指标可有效降低重大专项技术选择的风险。

Technology foresight is a system method, which does prospective research on the coordinated develop- ment of technology and economy. Based on technology foresight, the paper builds a planning model of science and technology; sets up a technology foresight ＂FRROC index system＂, including 20 indexes fall into five categories; and uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the indexes. The index system can be divided into 5 in dexes of level Ⅰ, 8 indexes of level Ⅱ, 5 indexes of level Ⅲ and 2 indexed of level Ⅳ. Research results can be used to regulate the planning, improve the accuracy and effectiveness of technology selection. Finally it is found that the fully consideration of level Ⅰ indexes can reduce the risk of major project selection effectively.