基于动态主成分分析法的国家高新区评价研究

National Hi-tech Zones Evaluation Method Based on Dynamic Principle Component Analysis

20多年来,我国分批建立了114家国家高新区,总体规模和发展质量取得明显进展,但由于批建时间、政策扶持等方面的差异,国家高新区的发展水平不尽相同,不同年份的表现存在差别。鉴于2007年之前批建的54个国家高新区的数据连续性和外部相似性,采取时序立体数据表主成分分析的原理,定量分析与定性分析相结合,动态构建评价的指标和方法,基于2008年为始点对54家高新区进行了连续五年的实证分析,并形成相关建议。

During the last two decades, 114 national hi--tech industrial zones were established in batches in Chi- na. Both the scale and the quality of development have made remarkable progress. However, the differences be tween different zones and time periods are also visible, according to various policy and time of establishment. The paper focuses on the 54 national hi--tech zones, which were founded before 2007 since the data has good consisten- cy. It adopts principle component analysis （PCA） using Cubic Time Series Data（CTSD） and combines quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis to establish a dynamic evaluation system.