煤炭依赖型区域生态承载力安全预警评价研究——基于山西省的实证分析

The Ecological Carrying Capacity Early-warning Evaluation in Areas Dependent on Coal Resources——Taking Shanxi Province as Case Study

煤炭依赖型区域是高生态风险区域。以该区域生态承载力运作系统为出发点,选取16项代表性技术指标,采用遗传算法优化BP神经网络设计生态承载力安全预警评价技术模型,并以山西省为实证研究对象进行预警分析。结果表明:基于GA-BP算法的预警技术有助于实现煤炭依赖型区域生态承载力风险预警;未来10年内,历史生态债务将在一定程度上削弱该区域生态风险控制的效果;必须采取进一步措施,方能降低生态承载力警情发生的可能性。

Areas dependent on coal are high ecological risk areas. This article selected sixteen representative indicators,used the CA - BP model, took Shanxi Province as the empirical study object and did the early warning analysis. The resultsshowed that： the early -warning technique based on GA - BP algorithm contributed to the regional ecological risk earlywarning ; the heavy historical ecological debt weakened the effect of ecological civilization constrnction ; some measures werestill needed in the future.