人民币升值对江西FDI影响实证研究——基于VAR和ECM模型的分析

Empirical Research on the Influence of RMB Appreciation on FDI in Jiangxi Province——Based on VAR and ECM Model

人民币升值会对吸收FDI产生影响。在分析人民币升值背景下,江西吸收FDI的现状和主要特点的基础上,根据变量间的关系建立VAR模型和ECM模型,分析了人民币升值及汇率波动对江西FDI的影响。通过实证分析发现,人民币升值对江西FDI的短期影响效应并不显著;但是从长期影响来看,人民币升值对江西FDI存在持续显著的负面影响,人民币每升值一个百分点,江西实际利用外资金额将减少2.57个百分点。这些研究结论和启示将在人民币持续升值的背景下,为江西制定更加合理的招商引资政策提供理论依据和经验借鉴。

RMB appreciation exerts impact on the absorption of FDI. Based on such backgrounds as RMB appreciation, the current situation and main characteristics of Jiangxi＇s absorption of FDI, this paper establishes the VAR model and ECM model on basis of the relationship among variables, then it analyzes theoretically the influences of RMB appreciation and exchange rate fluctuation on Jiangxi＇s FDI. Through empirical analysis, we found that under the background of RMB appreciation, there is no significant influence on Jiangxi FDI in the short-term; however, in the long run, the appreciation sustains an obvious negative impact on the IFDI. Every percent of appreciation will reduce the actual FDI amount by 2.57%. These conclusions and enlightenment will provide theoretical basis and experience for government or police- makers＇reference in making more reasonable FDI policy in case of continuous RMB appreciation.