新汇改后中国货币政策汇率传导机制有效性研究

The Research on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Exchange Rate Transmission Mechanism in China since the New Exchange Rate Reform

新汇改以来,人民币汇率形成机制的市场化水平得到了进一步提高。2005年7月以来的相关经济金融月度数据表明,货币政策汇率前向传导机制的效应存在刚性,而后向传导机制并不明显。要增强货币政策汇率传导机制的有效性,必须继续深化人民币汇率制度改革,进一步推进利率市场化改革,提高利率市场化水平,完善利率的结构体系。同时还要优化我国进出口商品的市场结构和外汇储备结构,适当降低外汇储备的增速和规模,使外汇储备的规模维持在一个适度的水平。

Since the new exchange rate reform, the marketization of the exchange rate transmission mechanism has been further improved. The economic and financial monthly data from July, 2005 show that the forward conduction effect of monetary policy transmission mechanism is rigid, the backward conduction is not clear. Thus a lot of things must be done to enhance the validity： continuing to deepen the reform of RMB exchange rate system, further promoting market-oriented interest rate reform, improving the level of interest rate marketization and perfecting the structure of interest rate. Meanwhile it is quite necessary to keep the foreign exchange reserves remaining at a modest level.