绿色证书交易与碳排放权交易对中国电力市场的政策效果

Policy Effect of Tradable Green Certificate and Carbon Emission Trading on China′s Electric Power Market

首先,在描述和分析可交易绿色证书制度和碳排放权交易制度的基础上,构建系统动力学模型来解释两种制度的作用机理。然后,研究两种制度作用于中国电力市场的机理,并对其政策作用效果进行模拟仿真。结果表明:可交易绿色证书制度和碳排放权交易制度不仅可影响中国电力市场的上网电价,而且可通过设定合理的规划目标组合来促进中国发电产业的发展;在可交易绿色证书机制和碳排放权交易机制的协同作用下,中国电力市场可形成相对合理的上网电价;科学的规划目标不仅有利于增强监管规划期内电价的合理性,而且可以有效调整发电产业的结构。

Firstly,based on the description and analysis on tradable green certificate（TGC） system and carbon emission trading（CET） system, a system dynamics model is employed to study the mechanism of these two systems. Secondly,the joint system is studied to simulate the effects of these two systems on China＇s electric power market. The results show as follows：TGC system and CET system not only affect the feed-in tariff in China＇s electric power market,but also promote the development of China ＇s power industry by setting planning objectives rationally;with the help of TGC system and CET system,a reasonable feed-in tariff could be formed;a scientific planning objective help to not only realizes the rational power price in a planning period,but also adjust the structure of China＇s power industry.