人力资本积累、人力资本结构与区域产业结构升级的关系——基于VEC模型的实证分析

The Research on the Relationship between the Human Capital Stock,Human Capital Structure and the Upgrading of Regional Industrial Structure——Based on the empirical analysis of VEC model

通过构建向量自回归(VAR)模型、向量误差修正模型(VEC)并利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量经济学方法,对1990-2012年陕西省人力资本结构、人力资本存量与产业结构升级之间的关系进行实证研究。结果表明:陕西省人力资本水平与产业结构升级之间存在长期均衡的双向作用和短期波动。在短期内,人力资本存量、人力资本分布结构对区域产业结构升级有显著影响,并且贡献率随滞后期逐渐增大;区域产业结构升级的发展对人力资本分布结构有显著负向影响,但贡献率随滞后期逐渐降低。

VAR model,VEC model,impulse response and square deviation decomposition are used to analyze the relationship between the human capital stock,human capital structure and the upgrading of regional industrial structure in Shaanxi during 1990-2012.The results show that there exists Long-term and short-term fluctuations balanced interaction between human capital and upgrading of industrial structure in Shaanxi Province.Moreover,in the short term,human capital Stock and human capital distribution structure has a significant impact on the upgrading of regional industrial structure and contribution rate is increasing with time lag;development of upgrading of regional industrial structure has a significant negative impact on the human capital distribution structure,but the contribution rate is decreasing with time lag.