试析后债务危机时期的欧盟及其前景

The Prospect of EU after the European Debt Crisis

欧债危机已基本结束,但其给欧盟经济、社会及其一体化发展带来的负面影响远未中止,短期内甚至还有可能继续蔓延和深化。其突出表现是:经济上通缩风险增大;民众心理和社会思潮仍继续右倾,极右势力发酵;欧盟内部持续分化,德法力量对比失衡,欧洲一体化进程受阻,等等。债务危机也给欧盟带来了系列具有深远影响的积极变化,欧盟特别是欧元区机制体制得到完善,成员国改革意识增强,更重要的是形成了欧元区核心。欧盟未来发展既存在种种消极因素的阻碍,也面临一些新机遇。后债务危机时期的欧盟发展不会一帆风顺,将面临一段较长的调整和巩固期。但欧盟向前发展的大势不会逆转,仍将继续深化和扩大。在经济领域,欧元区的核心作用将更为突出。就欧盟整体而言,共同外交与安全政策可能会有新的发展。

Although the European debt crisis is basically over,the impact on the economy,society and integration process is far from over. In the short term,the negative impact may even continue to spread and deepen. The main negative impacts are as follows. To begin with,the risk of deflation increases. Second,the far right populism is rising. Third,views are even more polarized in EU; the power between France and Germany loses balance and the integration faces more difficulties. On the other hand,however,the debt crisis has also brought about certain positive changes such as the improving management of the eurozone,the strengthening of the reform mentality,and more importantly,the forming of the core of the eurozone. In the future,the EU faces both hardships and opportunities.After the debt crisis,the EU will face a period of difficult readjustment and consolidation. But the forward trend of the EU will not be reversed. The EU will continue deepening and enlarging.