基于人口预测的民族地区资源环境承载力趋势研究

The Research on the Trend of Carrying Capacity of Resources and Environment Based on Population Predictions in Ethnic Regions

本文基于民族地区人口历史演变及区域差异的系统描述,考虑单独二胎政策等因素,运用Leslie人口模型预测我国民族地区2014-2025年人口变化趋势,结果显示,人口总量环比增速呈现逐年下降态势。进一步依据P-R-E模型测算民族地区资源环境承载力,结果表明:民族地区整体资源环境承载力有限,区域间存在较强异质性。青海、新疆的资源环境人口容量较富余,但面临生态风险;内蒙古、广西和云南的人口容量变化趋势较稳定,处于相对富余状态;贵州、宁夏的资源环境超载现象突出;西藏的理论人口容量大,但实际承载力有限。最后,基于研究结论提出促进民族地区人口与资源环境协调发展的对策建议。

Based on systematic descriptions of population historical evolution and theregional difference in ethnic regions,considering a separate two-child policy and other factors,the research predicts the trend of population development in ethnic regions from2014 to 2025by using Leslie population model.The results show that there is a downward trend in the link-relative growth rate of the total population.Furthermore,on the basis of PR-E model,the overall carrying capacity of resources and environment in ethnic regions is limited and there is a strong heterogeneity among ethnic regions:Qinghai and Xinjiang have a relatively surplus population capacity,but are facing with ecological risks;trends of population capacity in Inner Mongolia,Guangxi and Yunnan are relatively stable in surplus state;the capacity of Guizhou and Ningxia are overloading;the capacity of Tibet is large theoretically, but its actual carrying capacity is limited. Finally, relevant policy recommendations based on conclusions are proposed for promoting the sustainable development of population,resources and environment in ethnic regions.