污染减排政策影响产业结构调整的门槛效应存在吗?

Is there a Threshold Effect for Pollution Abatement Policies Affecting the Industrial Structure Adjustment?

产业结构调整的实质是企业行为的改变。污染减排政策可通过影响企业的行为选择驱动产业结构的自发调整。本文运用1999-2011年中国省际面板数据,借助门槛效应检验和面板门槛回归模型验证了中国污染减排政策对产业结构调整的倒逼效应以及两者之间的非线性关系。研究结果表明,污染减排政策能够作为一个有效的倒逼机制,显著驱动产业结构的调整;但污染减排政策对产业结构调整的倒逼效应并非单调递增(递减)的,当以工业废气排放强度作为门槛变量时,工业废气排放强度的逐渐降低,会对产业结构调整产生先抑制后促进的影响,两者之间符合倒"U"型关系。即较低的污染减排政策强度不利于产业结构的调整,而当污染减排政策趋紧时,其对产业结构调整的倒逼效应才逐渐显现且弹性逐渐增强。最后,根据实证结果,提出了中国污染减排政策创新的相关建议。

The essence of industrial restructuring is to change the corporate behavior. Pollution abatement could affect the choice of corporate behavior, thereby drives the spontaneous adjustment of industrial structure. By using the data of China＇ s 30 provinces from 1999 to 2011, we have a threshold effects test and establish a threshold regression model to empirically analyze the reversed force effect of pollution abatement policies to the adjustment of industrial structure, as well as the non - linear relationship between them. The results show that the pollution abatement policies could play a role in the reversed force mechanism to impact the adjustment of industrial structure significantly. On the other hand, the impact on the adjustment of industrial structure from pollution abatement policies is not monotonously increasing （or decreasing ）, but appears an inverted ＂U＂ type relationship with significant double threshold characteristics when the emissions intensity of industrial waste gas has become the threshold variable. With the emissions intensity of industrial waste gas to reduce gradually, it will restrain industrial structure to be adjusted and then turn to promote industrial restructure. That is, when the pollution abatement policies are weak, it is not helpful for industrial structure adjustment; but with the pollution abatement policies to be more and more strict, the reversed force effect will finally emerge and gradually improve the industrial structure adjustment. The article also presents relevant policy recommendations based on the empirical analysis.