低碳视角下中国农业环境效率的测算与分析——基于非期望产出的SBM模型

Measurement and Analysis of the Chinese Agricultural Eco-efficiency from the Perspective of Low Carbon:Based on SBM model of the undesirable outputs

基于非期望产出（碳排放）的SBM模型，本文对2002～2012年中国农业环境效率进行了测算和无效率来源的分解，并对中国三大区域环境效率的影响因素进行Tobit回归，最后对全国农业生产的碳减排潜力与潜在规模进行了比较分析。研究结果表明，东部地区的农业环境效率总体较高，宁夏、山西、云南等7个省（区）的农业环境效率较低；各地区的农业环境效率主要受生产特征、技术条件和社会结构等因素的影响，这些因素在不同地区对农业环境效率的影响程度存在一定差异；山东、江苏、浙江等省农业生产的碳减排效果非常明显，全国农业碳．排放的中心已由东部转移到中部，因此，中部地区农业生产碳减排的潜在规模较大，尤其是河南、安徽、河北等省，需要通过建立长期的低碳农业发展机制来实现农业生产的低碳转型。

Based on SBM model of undesirable outputs(carbon emission),this paper computes Chinese agricultural eco-efficiency and decomposes the sources of inefficiency from 2002 to 2012,and makes the Tobit Regression on the affecting factors of eco-efficiency in Chinese three regions,lastly conducts a comparative analysis on the potentials and scales of carbon emission reduction in the whole country.The results show that the agricultural eco-efficiency in the east is higher than other regions in general,the scores of agricultural eco-efficiency in Ningxia、 Shanxk Yunnan are at a lower level in the whole country.Agricultural eco-efficiencies in all three regions were mainly influenced by the factors of production characteristics,technical conditions,social structures,but there are some differences on the factors that affect the agricultural eco-efficiency among different regions.The effect of agricultural carbon emission reduction is very obvious in Shandong,Jiangsu and Zhejiang.The center of national agricultural carbon emissions has been moved to the central area.Therefore,the reduction scale of carbon emission of agricultural production in the central area is larger.We need to achieve low carbon transition of agricultural production by building the long term low carbon agricultural development mechanism in the central area,especially in Henan,Anhui and Hebei.