对分税制改革以来我国地方政府债务规模的估计——以浙豫疆三省区为例

ESTIMATING THE SIZE OF CHINA'S LOCAL GOVERNMENT DEBT SINCE 1994—— Taking Zhejiang,Henan and Xinjiang as Examples

本文以政府预算约束恒等式为工具,结合我国地方政府收支决算总表的具体特征,对地方债规模的估计进行了研究,并指出应该区分地方政府的决算总债务和决算净债务。在此基础上,本文以浙江、河南和新疆为例,对1994年分税制改革以来历年的地方债规模进行了估计。结果发现,浙江、河南和新疆的地方政府债务规模呈现出较大的差异,但发展周期十分一致,都经历了1994—1998年的增速快速回落期、1998—2007年的平稳增长期、2007—2008年的增速快速上升期和2009年以后更高水平的平稳增长期四个发展阶段。进一步,本文对浙豫疆三省区地方政府债务的可持续性进行了初步分析,认为浙江、河南和新疆的地方政府债务均表现出一定的可持续性,但浙江在控制地方债的增长方面压力相对较大。

Making use of the inter-temporal budget constraint for the government and taking into ac- count the specific characteristic of China＇s local government debt accounting, this paper studies how to es- timate its size and points out the distinction between book value and net value. Taking Zhejiang, Henan and Xinjiang as examples, this paper estimates the size of China＇s local government debt ever since 1994. It finds out that although the debt paths of three provinces are much different, three provinces have experi- enced similar cycle, which can be divided into the periods of 1994-1998, 1998-2007, 2007-2008 and post 2009. This paper＇s further study is about their fiscal sustainability, and the debts of Zhejiang, Henan and Xinjiang are sustainable to some extent.