单边默契、信号表达与中国的战略选择

Unilateral Consensus,Signaling and China's Strategic Choice

国际关系学界传统上聚焦于战略思维的军事维度,而忽视了政治维度。作为一种新的战略思维特性,单边默契超越了主流研究关于战略意图的进攻性和防御性争辩。依据不同的行为主体认知以及动因,单边默契分为基于战略理性和基于文化认同两种基本类型。中国的单边默契战略思维包括诚意、和谐、道德以及利益平衡多层次的内容。中国的诚意信号表达和利益信号表达及其效果,是决定中国的单边默契战略思维发挥何种战略效应以及进行何种战略选择的重要机制。单边默契战略思维理论的提出具有重要的国际战略研究理论价值,同时也有利于更为清晰地归纳和梳理中国的对外行为和思维模式,对于中国如何处理好相关的争端也具有一定的政策启示意义。

Traditionally the researchers in IR focus on the military dimension of strategic thinking,but ignore the political one.As a new trait of strategic thinking,unilateral consensus transcends the debate between offensive and defensive strategic intention within the research field,for the reason that it can shape the actor's choice between offensive and defensive strategic measures.Based on different actors' cognition and motivation,unilateral consensus can be classified into two basic kinds,which are strategic and cultural ones.The Chinese unilateral consensus strategic thinking includes multilevel contents,such as sincerity,harmony,morality and interest balance.The unilateral consensus strategic thinking will result in actor's expectation,and then shape the process of strategic interaction;in the short run it can produce positive strategic effect,while in the long run will generate unintended consequences.What determine the effect and selection mechanism of strategic interaction is China's sincerity signaling and interest signaling and their effects.The unilateral consensus strategic thinking theory can enrich the value of the international strategic theory,and it is also beneficial to induce and describe the behaviors and thinking pattern in China's foreign policy,and has implications for China to resolve the political,military and territorial disputes.