政府支出结构、居民消费与社会总消费——基于中国2007—2012年省级面板数据分析

The structure of the government expenditure, private consumption and total social consumption——Analysis based on the provincial-level panel data in China over the 2007-2012 peroid

已有的研究成果表明,在政府支出与居民消费的关系问题上不存在一个一致的结论,一个国家在某一时期的政府支出与居民消费的关系究竟如何需要进行具体分析。本文在不同理论框架下讨论政府支出结构与居民消费和社会总消费的关系,尤其注重在长期稳态增长路径上考察政府支出结构对居民消费的影响。我们发现,在不同模型框架下政府支出对居民消费的影响是不同的。我们用2007—2012年中国的省级面板数据验证了这些影响。结果发现,我国政府消费性支出与居民消费率和总消费率之间存在负向影响关系,说明了政府消费对居民消费和社会总消费有一定的挤出效应。这个结论更符合政府支出不进入生产函数的动态一般均衡理论的预测。

the existing research results show that there isn＇t a consistent conclusion in the relationship between government spending and private consumption. For an economy, such relationship in a certain period of time needs concrete analysis. This paper discusses the relationship between the structure of the government expenditure and private consumption and total consumption in the different theoretical frameworks, with particular emphasis on the effects of the structure of the government expenditure on household consumption in the long - term steady growth path. We found that there are different effects of government expenditure on household consumption in different framework of model. We validate these effects by quantitative analysis of provincial - level panel data in China over the 2007 -2012 period. The results show that there is a negative correlation among the rate of Chinese gov- ernment consumption and the rate of private consumption and the rate of final consumption, and that the government consumption has crowded out in a certain degree private consumption and final consumption. This conclusion is more consistent with the prediction of the dynamic general equilibrium theory that government spending is not taken into account in the production function.