人民币汇率与中国贸易平衡:基于汇改后数据的实证研究

Impact of Renminbi Appreciation on China's Trade Balance since the Exchange Rate Reform:an Empirical study

本文运用计量方法考察汇率制度改革后贸易平衡价格弹性的变化和人民币升值对中国贸易平衡的影响。主要得到以下的结论:自2005年7月人民币汇率制度改革以来,我国贸易平衡的价格弹性显著增强,汇率的价格信号机制有所加强,表明汇率制度改革使人民币汇率更好地发挥对贸易收支的调节作用;人民币升值不能显著减少中国贸易顺差,但人民币升值会改变中国与不同贸易伙伴之间的贸易平衡关系;汇率制度改革后的人民币升值对工业制成品贸易的影响要大于对初级品贸易的影响。

This paper studies changes in elasticity of trade balance and the impact of Renminbi appreciation on China＇s trade balance since the reform of exchange rate regime. Conclusions are obtained as followed： Firstly, the higher price elasticity since the reform of exchange rate regime in 2005 found in this study implies the fact that the lately reform in exchange rate regime has succeeded in making Renminbi more market - oriented. Secondly, this paper shows no remarkable evidence that Renminbi appreciation could reduce China＇s trade surplus, but it may probably alter the trade structure between China and its main trade partners. Last but not the least, the Renminbi appreciation could have larger impact on processing trading products than it on original trading products.