中国棉花进口量与纺织品服装出口额的动态关系分析

Analysis of Dynamic Relationship between the China's Imports of Cotton and the Exports of Textile Garments

运用Granger检验、协整检验、脉冲响应分析等方法 ,分析了我国2005年9月以来棉花进口量与纺织品服装出口额之间的动态关系。实证结果表明,中国棉花进口量与纺织品服装出口额之间存在长期均衡关系,其中棉花进口量对纺织品服装出口额具有较强的影响,所以一定数量的棉花进口有利于保持中国纺织工业的发展规模。

This paper uses Granger Causality Test, co-integration test, impulse response and other tests to analyze the dyy namic relationship between the cotton imports and exports of textile garments. The empirical tests show that there is a long term balance relationship between the China＇s cotton imports and exports of textile garments, in which the cotton import has a stronger impact on the exports of textile garments. Thus, a certain amount of cotton import is beneficial to the development scale of China＇ s textile industry.