山东省县域经济时空分异演化特征研究

Study on Characteristic of Spatio-temporal Evolution of County Economic Difference in Shandong Province

借助GeoDA软件,运用标准差、加权变异系数、库兹涅茨比率和空间自相关等分析方法,以山东省105个县域为研究单元,从时空双重维度着手,对山东省1995—2012年县域经济差异的时间演变趋势和空间格局分异特征进行定量分析。结果发现:时间序列上山东县域经济绝对差异显著扩大,相对差异缓慢上升,极化现象显著;从空间格局来看,山东县域经济存在明显的空间自相关性,总体呈现"大异质,小均质"的空间经济格局,东部县域发达而西部县域相对落后,县域间经济发展的空间依赖性呈现出由增强到减弱的趋势,县域经济发展遵循"积累循环"法则,空间自相关集聚模式具有较高的稳定性。

With the support of GeoDA software and methods of standard deviation, weighted coefficient of var-ation, Kuznets ratio and spatial autoeorrelation analysis, the temporal evolution tendencies and spatial differentia- tion characteristics of the 105 counties of Shandong Province from 1995 to 2012 are quantitatively analyzed. The ab- solute difference of county economy is marked enlarging, the relative difference is increasing slowly and the polarization is obvious on time series ; From the spatial distribution pattern, the spatial autocorrelation of county economy development in Shandong Province is obviously positive. The spatial structure of county economy differences pres- ents regionally homogeneous at the large scale and heterogeneous at the small scale. The western region＇ s economy lags behind the eastern region, the spatial dependence of county economy development has a trend from strengthening to weakening and the county economy development is undertaken within the laws of accumulation and cycling, spatial autocorrelation clustering pattern of county economies with higher stability in Shandong Province.