深圳产业演进规律及空间分布格局

Evolutionary Law and Spatial Pattern of Shenzhen Industries

根据1979—2012年深圳企业数据,以ADF方法进行单位根检验,发现企业时序变量为1阶单整序列,继而进行协整检验和Granger检验,结合VAR和VEC模型计量结果,探讨了深圳第二产业和第三产业企业在演进过程中的长期均衡关系、短期因果关系和动态冲击影响,并基于企业区位熵法对产业演进结果的空间表现形态进行了分析,发现深圳产业发展过程中存在协整关系,第三产业企业增长是第二产业企业出现的Granger原因,脉冲响应函数反映两者相互的动态影响,产业协同演进结果空间分布上存在着分异现象。在研究结果的基础上提出相应的政策建议,以期促进城市产业合理演进。

Based on the enterprises data of secondary and tertiary industry during 1979--2012 in Shenzhen, taking ADF method to implement root tests, by which the result indicated that the variables were 1 order integration process. And then long-term equilibrium relationship, short-term causality effects and dynamic impact between sec- ondary and tertiary industry were verified by using Engle-Granger cointegration analysis, Granger causality test, vec- tor autoregressive and vector error correction model. Location quotient for enterprises was introduced to analyze the spatial pattern of industrial evolution. Results show that cointegration relation exists through industrial development, enterprises＇ growth of tertiary industry is Granger causality to the enterprises＇ emergence of secondary industry and impulse response function reflects the dynamic effects of c reveals there are spatial differentiations between secondary hanges in both. The spatial pattern of industrial evolution and tertiary industry. Finally, according to these findings corresponding policy recommendations are forwarded in order to promote the rational evolution of urban industries.