金砖国家汇率制度选择与成效分析

The Choices of BRICS Exchange Rate Regimes and Performance Analysis

全球经济出现动荡,增长乏力,而金砖国家经济仍然保持快速增长。金砖国家的国情与开放程度不同,发展水平也不一致,从而选择了不尽相同的汇率制度。本文回顾了金砖五国汇率制度变革的过程,从名义汇率与实际有效汇率的变动、外汇储备与特别提款权、国际收支、外债规模与结构四个方面对金砖五国汇率制度的有效性进行分析,总结经验与教训,以期提出更有利于我国发展的汇率政策。

Abstract： Since the global financial crisis erupted in 2008, the global economy has witnessed tur- bulence and sluggish growth. Under the circumstances that advanced economies have to face the issues of debt, unfavorable balance of international payment, high unemployment rate and sluggish in economic growth, emerging e- conomies, especially represented by BRICS countries, still maintain a fast economic growth rate companying with the expanding economic scale. The developing countries, China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa and India, namely usually called the BRICS countries. The international status of the emerging economies such as BRICS has been enhanced. However, comparing to the primary industry and secondary industry, these emerging economies have relatively weak performance in finance, especially in international finance, exchange exc ble hange rate, and the balance of payment. With the globalization, rate regime as the major institution in exchange with the external has been the key issue impacting the sta- development on domestic economy. This paper reviews processes of exchange rate regime reform in BRICS countries, divides the exchange rate re- gime into four parts, variation of nominal exchange rate and real effective exchange rate, foreign exchange reserve and special drawing rights, balance of international payments, foreign debt scale and structure, analyzes the ex- change rate regime effectiveness in these four items. At the same time, this paper summarizes the experiences and lessons of exchange rate reform, look forward to putting forward exchange rate policies which are much better for China＇s development. For improving the China＇s exchange rate regime, this paper analyzes the evolution process of BRICS＇s exchange rate regime, summarizes the experiences and lessons, and compares the major movement on BRICS＇s four items. In order to approve these, the paper builds a series measuring methods for a review of BRICS which are regarded as the typical representatives of emerging market countries. As the conclusion, by using the statistics in BRICS from 2000 to 2012, the paper concludes some meaningful outcomes. For example, the paper conducts studies on the moderate size of the foreign currency reserves of the five countries, define the reasonable level of the foreign currency reserves of the emerging market countries and provide the beneficial reference to these five BRICS countries. The paper found that in countries like Russia, Brazil, China, as a representative of some of the emerging market countries, foreign currency reserves gradually exceeded the upper limit of the reasonable level. As the same time, in South Africa, as a representative of the part of the emerging market countries, the foreign currency reserves level was in the state of shortage for a long time. However, India＇s foreign currency reserves management policy made its foreign currency reserves stay within an appropriate scale range, showing a good momentum of development. A fundamental problem in international finance is how to produce an acceptable degree of harmony among the exchange rate policies of different countries without a world government that tells countries what to do and how to do. The global economic and financial power of the BRICS countries have been rising in recent years, which help in providing low -cost capital for the emerging international markets, promoting global financial stability and push- ing global economy development and financial regime reform. However, the financial power of BRICS countries as a whole is not proportionate to their development level in real economy and international trade, which is rooied in BRICS＇s lagging domestic financial development. As a result, they have failed to play a crucial role in international financial governance and global efforts to rebalance the world economy. In July 15, 2014, BRICS countries signed an agreement in Fortaleza, Brazil, established the WORLD UNIONPAY BRICS BANK CO. , LTD（WUBBC）. This is one of the most important system reconstruction event of the global monetary system since 1944 in Bretton Woods where established dollar dominated the world for more than half a century. WUBBC is the fourth intercontinental, trans - regional investment and development bank in the global currency market, Besides the World Bank led by America and the International Monetary Fund （IMF） by Europe, as well as the Asian Development Bank dominated by Japan. BRICS countries should accelerate their domestic financial reform, push forward development of their domestic financial markets, reinforce trade and investment relations as well as their relations with other emerging market economies and strengthen coordination to push forward reform of global financial governance and currency regime.