阿富汗总统大选及其政治发展态势研判

Presidential Election and the Trend of Political Development in Afghanistan

驻阿富汗美军和北约联军将从阿富汗撤出主要作战部队,2014年阿富汗总统大选因此成为影响本国和平稳定的一个重要环节。迄今为止,大选一波三折,尤其是阿卜杜拉和加尼进入第二轮选举后,因出现大规模舞弊行为,选举一度陷入困境。尽管如此,在美国斡旋以及客观形势推动下,将来有可能产生某种形式的联合政府,或由其中一方主导未来的政府。受内在分歧制约,阿富汗未来新政府可能比较弱势,同时面临美国撤军后严峻的政治、经济和安全考验。而竞选双方提出的一些共同执政理念,深刻地反映了新形势下阿富汗为确保生存和发展做出的理性思考,因此有可能成为未来政策的一些基本面。

The presidential election in 2014 might have more important influences on the situation of security in Afghanistan as the US and NATO will withdraw their main troops by the end of the same year. Because of the alleged widespread frauds, the election runoff had been thrown into crisis. However, with the effective mediation of the US, the two candidates, Mr. Ghani and Mr. Abudtallah, have agreed to accept the final result and form a national unity government if all the votes will be recounted by the domestic and international institutions. The kind of coalition government might not be powerful because of its native cleavage, and might face serious political, economic and security challenges. Yet, it might be possible for the common points of the campaign programs from the two candidates to turn into some basic policies in the future.