加强铁路客运需求预测提高前期研究工作质量

Strengthening Railway Passenger Demand Forecast,Improving the Quality of the Preparatory Research Work

运输需求分析是建设项目前期工作的核心。本文针对铁路管理体制、投融资体制发生重大改革的新形势、新特点,梳理了客运需求预测在重视程度、预测基础、模型更新、研究内容四个方面存在的问题。通过分析客运需求预测面临的发展形势,提出建立专题审查制度、编制需求预测指导书、构建分层次分区域需求预测模型、加强对已运营铁路的后评估和重视需求预测风险分析五个方面的建议。

Transport demand forecast is the core of the preparatory work construction project.The paper,according to the railway reform and financing system reform,sorted out the problem of attention to level,forecast foundation,model updated and research content.By analysing the situation of the passenger demand,it presented the five suggestions about establis-hing the examination system of special subject,drawing up the handbook of demand forecast,building the predictive model of different level and religion,strengthening the operation railway evaluation and paying attention to the risk analysis.