基于标准化指数SPI的云南地区干旱评价研究

Based on the PDSI index to analysis the drought of Yunnan Province

本文基于云南地区6个气象站点1954-2012年降雨资料,运用标准化指数SPI计算了各站点的SPI值,定量统计和评价了云南地区在近59年期间发生干旱的年份和发生不同程度干旱的频次。研究结果表明:1标准化降水指数适合于云南地区的干旱计算,计算结果与历史实际干旱情况较为吻合,该指标可用于云南地区的干旱评价;2临沧站出现干旱的年份较多,但蒙自站出现极端干旱的年份明显高于其他5站;3各站点在不同季节出现干旱的频次不同,其中腾冲在春季相比于其他5站,发生干旱的频率较高35.6%,临沧站在夏季和冬季发生干旱频率均较大,分别为35.6%和37.9%,蒙自站在秋季发生干旱频率最大,为34.8%研究成果可为云南地区的干旱评价分析和水资源保护提供一定的参考价值。

Based on annual rainfall data during 1954-2012 year of the six meteorological stations in Yunnan region,the standardized index（SPI） was use to calculate,the year of drought and drought frequency at different degrees were Statistic and were quantitative evaluated during the past 59 years in the Yunnan region.The results showed that： ①standardized precipitation index was suited to arid areas in Yunnan, the calculation results are more consistent with the history of the actual drought conditions ,the index can be used to evaluate the drought in Yunnan region;②Lincang station drought years more ,but Mengzi station extreme drought years was significantly higher than the other five stations; ③the site appear different in different seasons of drought frequency,which Tengchong compared to other five stations in the spring,the higher the frequency of occurrence of drought was 35.6%,Lincang at summer and winter drought frequency are larger,respectively,were 35.6% and 37.9%,Mengzi standing autumn drought frequency maximum for 34.8% of research results can be evaluated in Yunnan drought and water conservation analysis to provide a reference value.