基于Logistic模型的江苏林业产业碳排放研究

Analysis on the Carbon Emissions from Forestry Industry in Jiangsu Province Based on Logistic Model

Logistic模型突破以往的对于碳计量的静态评估,可对数据进行动态预测。根据江苏林业产业的发展现状,将江苏林业产业分为18个小类,基于Logistic模型对江苏各林业产业碳排量进行动态预测,指出江苏林业的碳排放水平总体处于上升阶段,但增幅趋缓。江苏可以通过产业结构调整特别是通过林业第二产业结构的优化来降低碳排放水平,林业新技术的应用将提高产业碳减排效率,从而为江苏提出林业产业的低碳发展战略提供决策依据。

Logistic model breaks through the traditional static evaluation measurement for carbon, it can be used to predict data. According to the current situation of the development of forestry industry in Jiangsu province, the paper divides the forestry industry into 18 classes, predicts the carbon emissions from forestry industry based on logistic model, and points out that carbon emission level is on the rise, but the increase slowed down. It can reduce carbon emissions to adjustment industrial structure especially the second forestry industrial structure for Jiangsu Province, the application of new technology in forestry industry will improve efficiency of carbon emission reduction. Basis for decision-making will be provided for the low carbon development strategy of forestry industry in Jiangsu Province.