基于Logistic的长江上游地区工业污染EKC检验分析

EKC Test and Analysis on Industrial Pollution in the Upper Yangtze River Industrial: Based on Logistic

运用多项式模型对长江上游地区工业三废污染进行EKC检验,并借助Logistic模型分析EKC拐点的时间路径,同时对污染的影响因素作面板数据多元回归分析。研究发现:污染指标的选取不同,工业污染与人均GDP的关系也不同,废水排放量、废气排放量、固体废弃物产生量、三废综合值与人均GDP分别是倒N型、倒N型、直线型、倒N型的曲线关系;不同曲线拐点对应的人均GDP、到达时间各不相同;长江上游地区三废减排难度也不等同。因此,政府应因地制宜,针对性地加大污染治理力度,优化产业结构,发展循环经济,实现环境与经济的良性互动。

This paper uses the polynomial model to perform EKC test on the industry waste of the upper Yangtze River, uses the Logistic model to analyze the time path of EKC inflection point, and analyzes influence of the pollution causations through the panel data regression model. The study found that： when different pollution indexes were selected, the relationship between industrial pollution and per capita GDP is different; different curve has a different inflexion point, and the arrival time is also different; the upper Yangtze River provinces＇ waste reduction difficulty is not the same. Therefore, the government should adapt it＇s measures to local conditions, strengthen pollution control, optimize the industrial structure, develop recycling economy, so that being interoction between the environment and economy can be realizedcan realize the benign interaction between the environment and economy.