基于T-S模糊故障树的输气站场设备失效可能性研究

Study on failure possibility of facilities in gas transmission station based on T-S fuzzy FTA

针对目前国内缺乏输气站场设备失效数据库的特点,同时考虑到设备具有不同的故障程度,提出将指标评价引入至T-S模糊故障树分析中,对设备进行失效可能性分析。首先构建设备的T-S模糊故障树;其次对故障树底事件进行指标评价,转化成当前工况下的故障程度;再次对设备的故障可能性值进行计算;最后,利用模糊数学的方法将故障可能性值转化为失效概率,并参考API 581中的失效概率等级对设备进行失效可能性等级划分。实例分析表明,该方法不仅比传统故障树分析更切合实际,又能够避免指标评价法淡化关键指标的不足,且兼具定量评价与半定量评价的优点。

A method of T-S fuzzy FTA with index assessment introduced was proposed to analyze failure possibility of facilities in gas transmission station , which aimed at the lack of facility failure database and meanwhile took dif-ferent fault levels of facilities into consideration .Firstly, a fuzzy fault tree based on T-S model of facility was struc-tured.Then, the bottom events of fault tree were assessed through index assessment technique and converted into fault levels in current conditions .In addition, the value of fault possibility was calculated by T-S fuzzy rules.At last, the value of fault possibility was transformed into failure rate through fuzzy mathematics method , and the level of facility failure probability was divided by referring to failure rate levels of API 581 .The case analysis showed that this method is not only be more suitable to actual circumstances than traditional FTA , but also can avoid the phe-nomenon of weakening key indexes in index assessment method .And it has both the advantages of semi-quantitive and quantitive assessment .