资源新城榆林市石油资源开发与经济增长关系研究

An Empirical Study on Relationship Between Petroleum Resources Exploitation and Economic Growth in Yulin City

为揭示国家能源化工基地榆林市石油资源开发与经济增长的数量关系和运行状况,以1993-2012年榆林市石油产量和国内生产总值数据为样本,应用协整分析、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系检验方法进行实证研究.结果显示:榆林市石油资源开发与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,长期来看,石油资源开发对经济增长贡献显著,但短期内,影响并不明显;石油资源开发与经济增长之间存在由前者到后者的单向格兰杰因果关系。实现资源新城榆林市石油资源开发与经济增长的良性互动势在必行.

With the data of oil production and GDP from 1993 to 2012 in Yulin as samples ,using the co-integration theory ,error correction model and granger causality analysis ,an empirical study was made to reveal the numerical relationship between the petroleum resources exploitation and economic growth in Yulin city ,the national base of energy and chemical industry .The findings reveal that there exists a long-run equilibrium and co-integration relationship between the petroleum resources exploitation and economic growth ,and there is a one-way causal relationship from petroleum resources exploitation to economic grow th . In the long run , petroleum resources exploitation has a great effect on economic growth ,whereas ,in the short-term ,the effect is not obvious .It is necessary to realize the positive interaction between the petroleum resources exploitation and economic grow th in Yulin city .