山东省干旱敏感传染性疾病的初步筛选

Screening on drought-sensitive infectious diseases in Shandong

目的筛选山东省干旱敏感的传染性疾病,为旱期传染病预防控制提供科学依据。方法比较山东省威海、济宁、临沂、枣庄干旱年与非干旱年甲乙类法定传染病的发病率,对上述地区及所辖县1997—1999年标准化降水指数（SPI）与同期、滞后1-3月的甲乙类法定传染病月发病率进行相关分析。结果干旱年菌痢、麻疹、猩红热、肺结核、出血热、肝炎（总）、乙肝发病率高于非干旱年。SPI在济宁地区与当月菌痢月发病率相关系数最大（rs=-0.392,P=0.018）;SPI在威海地区与滞后3月的肾综合征出血热月发病率相关系数最大（rs=-0.552,P〈0.001）,而临沂、济宁、枣庄SPI分别与当月（rs=0.430,P=0.009）、滞后1月（rs=0.384,P=0.021）、当月的发病率（rs=0.445,P=0.007）关系最为密切;SPI在枣庄、临沂地区分别与滞后3月（rs=0.355,P=0.034）、滞后1月的肺结核月发病率（rs=0.469,P=0.004）关系最为密切。基于县级的SPI与菌痢、麻疹月发病率呈负相关,而猩红热、肺结核、肾综合征出血热、肝炎（总）、乙肝中,SPI与单病种月发病率相关方向在不同县不完全一致。结论山东省甲乙类法定传染病中菌痢、麻疹、猩红热、肺结核、肾综合征出血热、肝炎（总）、乙肝的发病可能与干旱有关,其中菌疾、麻疹的发病率与干旱程度呈正相关。

Objective To identify infectious diseases related with drought in Shandong. Methods Incidence of infectious diseases in drought years and the non-drought years were compared in Weihai, Jining, Linyi, Zaozhuang areas, Shandong. Correlations analysis was done between monthly incideaee of infectious diseases in these areas mentioned above during 1997- 1999 and standardized precipitation index （SP1） lagge：10-3 months, and the relationship between infectious diseases and SPI was analyzed. Results The incidences of dysentery, measles, scarlatina, tuberculosis, Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome （HFRS）, hepatitis and hepatitis B in drought years were higher than those in non-drought years. Monthly SP1 was closely related with incidence of dysentery over the same period （rs=-0.392, P=0.018） in Jining. SPI was closely related with incidence of HFRS lagged 3 months （r,=-0.552, P〈0.001） in Weihai. However, SP1 were closely correlated with the incidences of HFRS over the same period （r,=0.430, P=0.009）, lagged 1 month （rs=0.384, P=0.021）, and over the same period （rs=0.445, P=0.007） in Linyi, Jining and Zaozhuang, respectively. SPI were closely correlated with incidences of tuberculosis lagged 3 months （rs=0.355, P=0.034） and lagged 1 month（rs=0.469, P=0.004） in Zaozhuang and Linyi, respectively. At the county levels, SPI was negatively correlated with the incidence of dysentery, measles, but the directions of correlation were not consistent between SPI and the incidences of scarlatina, tuberculosis, HFRS, hepatitis and hepatitis B. Conclusion Infectious diseases, including dysentery, measles, scarlatina, tuberculosis, HFRS, hepatitis, and hepatitis B are related with drought in Shandong. Moreover, the incidence of dysentery, measles were positively related with drought.