基于地面气象要素的贵州省大气可降水量研究

Precipitable water vapor study based on ground meteorological elements over Guizhou

利用贵州省内的高空探测数据与地面气象要素观测数据,建立起贵州境内大气可降水量的经验计算公式.通过计算公式本身及其与其他经验公式的误差值,得出贵州境内本地经验公式计算值与探空反演值之间的误差值低于其他公式,贵阳站的年平均绝对误差为4.62 mm,威宁为3.15 mm.5—10月间2种计算方法的相对误差均较小（1%~6%）;11—2月的误差值相对偏大.贵州省内年平均大气可降水量值自1989年起到1998年呈增多的趋势,1998年开始逐渐减少,2004年起持续低于多年平均值.月际变化呈单峰型,夏季（6—8月）的大气可降水量值占了全年的39%.受贵州省内地形和水汽来源的影响,贵州省内大气可降水量的总体分布特征为西部、中部较低,南部边缘和东部地区较高.

In this plored, contributing to paper, the data of ground the local empirical formula meteorological observation and about atmospheric precipitable sounding data have been exwater in Guizhou province. By comparing the error about itself and among other empirical formulas,resuhs have revealed that the error between the local empirical formula and the radiosonde method in calculating precipitable water is smaller than other empirical formula. The mean absolute error is 4.62 mm in Guiyang station,and 3.15 mm in Weining station. By calculating the relative errors between the local empirical formula and the radiosonde method ,we＇ve found that the relative errors are smaller （ 1% -6 % ） from May to October, while it is bigger from preceding November to next February. In Guizhou province, an increasing trend of precipitable water has been found from 1989 to 1998 ,while a falling trend since 1998. The monthly of precipitable water is unimodal, summer （June--August） accounted for 39 % of the year. Flueneed by topography and the water sources of Guizhou province, the low - value zone of the atmospheric precipitable water concentrates in west and the central part , and the high -value zone focus on east and southern edge of Guizhou.