R&3D技术创新风险与失败案例研究——以洁净煤技术为例

Study on the Risk of Technology Innovation and Related Failure Cases based on R&3D Framework: Evidence from Clean Coal Technology

基于R&3D的框架,拓展了Tassey的技术风险曲线,分别从理论和实证两方面进行验证。在理论方面,综述了技术创新风险的典型性研究,从融合的角度探讨了技术创新风险的类型和水平,对示范和推广阶段的风险进行了综合评定。在实践方面,以洁净煤技术领域为例,选取了燃煤磁流体技术、增压流化床燃烧联合循环发电技术、多喷嘴对置式水煤浆气化技术作为典型案例进行成功与失败的对比研究。理论研究结果表明,示范阶段交织存在着多种类型、不同程度的风险,极易导致技术创新的失败。实证研究结果表明,(科学)技术就绪水平、市场和产业就绪水平、制度就绪水平是决定R&3D中前三个阶段成败的重要因素,应予以特别的关注和重视。

Based on the framework of R＆amp;3D, this study expands the R＆amp;D risk curve developed by Tassey by testing it from a combination of theoretical and empirical perspective. By reviewing the previous representative studies on risk of technology innovation, this study discusses the types and levels of risk as an integrated system and evaluates the risk in the phase of demonstration and deployment. As for practice, this study selects MHD gen-eration, PFBC-CC and coal-water slurry gasification with opposed multi-burners as typical cases to compare their success and failure. The theoretical analysis shows that different types and levels of risk tend to result in failure of technology innovation. The empirical investigation in this study indicates that technology readiness level, mar-ket ＆amp; industry readiness level, and institution readiness level are crucial factors affecting the success of failure in the first three phases of R＆amp;3D, which should be concerned by policy makers and developers.