城镇化促进保险业发展研究——基于面板数据

Urbanization Promotes the Development of the Insurance Industry——An Empirical Research Based on Panel Data

近年来保险业增速放缓、金融同业竞争压力增大、行业发展空间被压缩,户籍制度改革、土地流转制度改革共同推进下的新型城镇化及保险业"国十条"将成为保险业发展的新机遇与新动力。基于实证ECM模型发现,城镇化率与保险深度、保险密度长期协整正相关,城镇化率每增加1%。保险深度提高0.6114%,保险密度增加5.26465%;根据面板数据模型发现,城镇化率每增加1%,人身保险深度增加0.6138%,财产险保险深度增加0.1727%,人身保险密度增加5.0873%,财产险保险密度增加0.2313%,城镇化率对人身险的深化作用强于财险;与此同时,对比不同城镇化率面板发现,城镇化率越高,对保险密度深化的促进作用越强。

In recent years, the growth of the insurance industry is slowing down, competition pressure from within the financial sector is increasing, and the room for further development of the insurance sector is compressed. The New Urbanization policy powered by the reform on the household registration system and the rural land circulation system will offer a new opportunity and driving force for the development of the insurance industry. According to the ECM model, there is a long-term positive co-integration relationship between the urbanization rate and insurance penetration and insurance density. For every 1% increase in the urbanization rate, the insurance penetration increa- ses by O. 6114% and the insurance density increases by 5. 26465%. According to the panel data model,when the urbanization rate increases by 1% ,life insurance penetration will increase by 0. 6138% ,property insurance penetra- tion will increase by 0. 1727 % , life insurance density will increase by 5. 0873 % , and property insurance density will increase by 0. 2313%. This means the effect of urbanization on life insurance sector is stronger than on the property insurance sector. What＇ s more, the analysis on different urbanization rate panels reveals that the higher the urbani- zation rate, the more obvious the effect will be.