基于模糊故障树的鳞板输送机可靠性分析

Analysis of Apron Conveyer Reliability Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree

针对鳞板输送机失效的影响因素复杂且具用模糊性,提出了模糊故障树分析方法。首先分析出导致鳞板输送机故障的主要原因:牵引链不动、牵引链走轮脱轨、链片断裂及张紧装置拉坏,并逐层找出导致这些原因发生的其它因素从而建立鳞板输送机失效故障树;其次通过定性与定量相结合的分析方法分别求出各底事件的结构重要度、顶事件发生概率、概率重要度及临界重要度,尤其在定量分析过程中,采用模糊集理论与专家综合评判相结合的方法求出模糊不确定因素的底事件失效概率;最后通过鳞板输送机事故树的分析得到了该设备的薄弱环节,从而可以对其采取有效措施,以降低事故发生的概率及提高系统可靠性。

Due to the influence of complexity and fuzziness on the failure of apron conveyer,a new methodbased on fuzzy fault tree analysis was proposed. There were four factors were analysed which led to thefailure： traction chain failure, walking round traction chain derailment, Chains breaking and Pull badtensioning device, and in order to build the fault tree of apron conveyer failure , we figured out thereasons of these events step by step; then we worked out the structural importance degree coefficient, theprobability of the top event, the probability importance degree coefficient and the critical importancedegree coefficient in quantitative and qualitative analysis, especially, in quantitative analysis, itcombined fuzzy set theory with the expert comprehensive evaluation method to get failure probability ofthe basic events, which were fuzzy and uncertain; at last, combined with the fault tree analysis,the weaklinks of apron conveyer could be found, and thus effective measures can be taken to decrease theprobability of accident occurrence and increase the reliability of apron conveyer.