天津市能源消费碳排放驱动因素分析及对策研究

Factor Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption in Tianjin City

在对天津市2001-2011年能源消费碳排放进行分析测算的基础上，采用对数平均权重分解法，构建天津市碳排放增量的因素分解模型，定量分析了经济发展、能源消费结构、能源强度、人口规模4个因素对天津市碳排放的贡献度。研究表明，经济规模效应是天津市能源消费碳排放增长的主要拉动因素，其次是人口规模的拉动作用，能源结构因素的影响作用较为微弱，能源消费强度因素对天津市碳排放具有抑制作用。最后对天津市提出了相应的减排建议和措施。

Based on the carbon emissions from energy consumption in Tianjin City from 2001 to 2011, the logarithmic mean weight Divisia method was applied to set up a carbon emission increment factor decomposition model, and to quantitatively analyse the sole and accumulative effects of four different factors contributing to carbon emissions including economic growth, energy consumption structure, energy intensity and population scale. Among those factors, the economic scale was found to be the major driving factor of carbon emissions whilst the population scale stood next. The energy consumption structure played a quite negligible role in carbon emissions, and the energy consumption intensity was considered to have constraint effect. Finally, some suggestions and measures on carbon reduction in Tianjin have been given.