基于不同模型的相对海平面变化分析

Analysis of the relative sea-level change based on different models

采用多种方法和3种模型分析了东方、海口、北海、闸坡、香港、汕尾、厦门、坎门、吕四、那霸、名濑、连云港、石臼所、大连共14个验潮站22年逐时海平面序列的相对海平面变化，主要包括趋势与周期项提取和未来月均海平面预测两大方面，比较了各种方法分析所得结果的相似性与差异性。结果表明：各验潮站的海平面均在逐渐上升，上升速率在1~3 mm/a之间，平均值为2.3 mm/a；各站的周期项也不一样，但基本都包含周年和半年项。发现一些方法组合时可能会出现异常情况，例如模型趋势项选择不同的形式，可能会导致所求速率出现正负截然相反的情形，不同的周期寻找方法所确定的周期也存在一定差异。各种方法的预测效果相差不大，预测残差基本都在依2 dm以内，基于奇异谱分析的均生函数的长期预测效果要明显优于带周期项的灰色模型和传统模型，但短期预测效果相差不大。

Using several methods and three models to analyze the relative sea-level change with 22 years of hourly water level sequence of 14 tide gauge stations that are Dongfang, Haikou, Beihai, Zhapo, Hong Kong, Shanwei, Xiamen, Kanmen, Lusi, Kaohsiung, Keelung, Lianyungang, Shijiusuo and Dalian, trend and cycle extraction and future sea level forecast are major aspects in this paper. In addition, the similarity and difference of analysis results by various methods is also one of the main research contents. The results showed that：sea level at each tide gauge station gradually increased, and the rates of rise were between 1 mm/a and 3 mm/a, and the average was about 2.3 mm/a;cycle of each station was not the same, but it basically contained annual and semiannual data. Through the analysis, it was found that some abnormal cases occurred by the combination of some methods, and for example, choosing different forms of the trend model, might induce the positive or negative calculated rates that are poles apart;moreover, there were some differences of the cycles determined by different periodicity analysis methods. Prediction effect by various methods differed little, and the prediction residuals were generally within ± 2 dm. Long-term prediction effect by mean generating function model based on singular spectrum analysis was significantly better than those by the gray model and the traditional model, but their short-term prediction effect was similar.