基于海上试验对海上漂移物运移轨迹影响因素的分析

Factors analysis on sea surface drift trajectory forecasting based on field experiment

为了提高现有的海上搜救和绿潮漂移预测模型的预报精度,在2011年7月20日进行了一次落水人员、绿潮和无动力船漂移预测的海上试验。通过分析这三种海上漂移物运移轨迹的实验数据,确立了落水人员、绿潮、以及无动力船在海上漂移轨迹的主要影响因素。实验结果表明,落水人员和绿潮的漂移轨迹比较一致,基本都受限制于海流运动。其中,落水人员相较于绿潮来说受到潮流的作用比较大,风对绿潮的影响相比对落水人员的影响大。无动力船的漂移轨迹与落水人员和绿潮的漂移轨迹略有不同,受潮流往复作用较小。根据海上实验的结果,我们重新确立了搜救模型的中海流和风应力的参数,使得搜救模型的模拟结果更吻合于实验数据。

To improve the present forecast capability for search and rescue （SAR） at sea as well as Green Tide floating trajectory, one field experiment was carried out on July 20th, 2011 to evaluate the relative contribution to modeling of different drift objects, such as person, Green Tide and boat. The results show that the drift trajectory of person is similar to that of Green Tide, since both of them are mostly dominated by currents. Besides, the person is more sensitive to tides than Green tide, while the latter is more sensitive to wind. However, the drift trajectory of boat is different from that of the person and Green tide, since the tide effect on boat is different. Moreover, according to the experiment data, the parameters of current and wind stress in search and rescue numerical model are revised. ARer improvement, the simulated trajectory results of different drift objects are more closer to the experimental data.