降水充水类型矿井涌水量预测方法研究

Study on water yield prediction of precipitation water filling type mine

矿井涌水量是影响煤矿安全生产的主要因素之一,它直接影响到矿井水文地质条件的复杂程度,关系到对矿床的经济技术评价,因此有效的矿井涌水量预测成为了矿井安全生产的重要因素。为了更有效地预测矿井涌水量,针对降水充水类型的矿井以古书院矿为例,通过分析近五年降水量和涌水量资料,利用回归分析法推导出二者定量关系式,并对近20年的降水量采用水文频率分析法分析得出平水年、丰水年的平均降水量,以此作为因变量,根据推导出的降水量和涌水量函数关系式,分别预测矿井的正常涌水量和最大涌水量,达到有效预测的目的。

Mine discharge is one of the main factors affecting the safety production of coal mine.It directly af-fects the complexity of mine hydrogeology conditions , and concerns the economic and technical evaluation of ore deposit, so the effective prediction of water yield of mine has become the priority in mine safety produc-tion.In order to effectively predict the water yield of mine, for the type of precipitation water-filled mine with the example of Gushuyuan Coal Mine,through the analysis of its rainfall and discharge data in recent 5 years, the quantitative relationship was derived using regression analysis.The average annual rainfall in the normal flow and high flow years was obtained through the hydrological frequency analysis of the rainfall in recent 20 years.Taking the average annual rainfall as the dependent variable and based on the inferred function relation-ship between precipitation and water inflow, the normal water inflow and the largest water inflow were predic-ted to achieve the purpose of effective forecasting.