基于“三阶段法”的高速铁路短期运量预测

Short-term Traffic Forecast of the High-speed Railway Based on “Three-stage method”

考虑到我国未来年度的OD分布预测中的路网构成变化、区域经济布局变动、区域经济增长速度差异等一些具有时变性和特殊性因素,采用在"四阶段法"运量预测基础上改进而成的"三阶段法"进行高速铁路短期客运量预测。首先采用组合预测模型进行趋势运量预测,然后采用多元LOGIT模型进行方式分担,最后采用弹性系数诱增模型进行诱增运量预测。以京沪高铁为例,采用"三阶段法"预测了2014年和2015年京沪高铁本线及跨线单向客流量。

Considering the time-varying and special factors in the forecast of China ’ s OD distribution in the coming years, such as the road network structure changes , changes in the regional economic layout , and differ-ent speeds of regional economic growth , this paper mainly uses the “three-stage method”evolved on the basis of the“four-stage method”for the short-term forecast of the high-speed railway traffic volumet .First, Combination Forecast Model is used to forecast the trend traffic volume , then, Multivariate LOGIT Model is used to forecast the share of each mode of transportation , and finally Elasticity Coefficient Induced Model is used to forecast in-duced traffic volume .Taking an example of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway , this paper uses the “three-stage method”to forecast the original-line and cross-line traffic volume in 2014 and 2015.