苏州电力需求的影响因素及电量预测研究

A Study of Prediction and Influencing Factors of Electric Power Demand in Suzhou

准确预测电力需求是电力行业发展的必要依据。论文研究了人均GDP、产业结构比例、人口数量、城市化率、城乡居民人均收入、居民家用电器拥有量、城乡居民人均住房使用面积、电力消费效率、气温变化对苏州电力需求的影响。然后通过逐步多元线性回归分析和相关检验,发现人均GDP、第二产业结构比例对电力需求的影响十分显著;最后根据统计数据的变化和苏州"十二五规划"的目标预测了未来5年的电力需求量。

The development of electric industry depends on forecasting electric demand accurately. Firstly, this paper studies such effects on the electric power demand in Suzhou as its GDP per capita, industrial structure, population, urbanization, income of urban and rural residents, amount of resident household appliances, urban and rural residents per capita housing area, electricity consumption efficiency and climate change. Then, it is found that GDP per capita and percentage of second industry have a significant influence on electric consuming by stepwise multiple linear regression analysis. Lastly, electric power demand of future five years is predicted according to the statistical data and “12th Five-Year Plan” of Suzhou.