产品异质和引力模型视角下中国汽车出口分析

Chinese Automobile Export from the Perspective of Product Heterogeneity and Gravity Model

本文对藤田昌久等的模型进行了扩展，在引力模型的分析框架内对异质产品的出口影响因素进行了理论分析，并利用2005～2009年中国对138个国家和地区的汽车出口经验数据进行了实证研究。理论分析和实证研究均表明：汽车的异质特征、目标市场的经济规模、目标市场的经济发展水平和空间距离都对中国汽车的出口规模产生了影响；产品异质特征的影响主要表现为，出口的汽车平均价格越高出口规模越小。进一步的实证研究表明，随着汽车品质等级的提高，出口规模与空间距离之间呈倒u型的相关关系。

This paper further extends the model of Masahisa Fujita,and theoretically analyzes the factors affecting the export of heterogeneous products in the framework of gravity model.The corresponding empirical test is carried out based on Chinese automobile data exporting to 138 countries from 2005 to 2009.The conclusions from both theoretical analysis and empirical tests are as follows:the heterogeneity of exported automobile,the economic scale of target markets,the development of target markets and the spatial distance between China and target markets all have effect on export volume of automobile.The effect of product heterogeneity is that the higher the average price of exported automobiles,the smaller the export volume.The further empirical test shows that there is inverted u-shaped relationship between space distance and export volume with the improvement of automobile quality.